Moving the goalposts

When someone is moving the goalposts this creates a very good opportunity to really understand what this person really believes in.

For example:

“I think that machines will be intelligent once they pass the Turing test”

A machine passes the Turing test

“Well, I think that machines are not that intelligent because they can’t count the number of r’s in strawberry”

Machines learn how to correctly count the number of r’s in strawberry.

“Well, I think machines can’t really think because they can’t find original proofs to mathematical problems”

A machine finds an original proof to a mathematical problem

“Well, I think machines can’t really think because…”

The story repeats

When someone keeps moving and moving the goalposts it is a clear signal that the original reasons given were not the real reasons why someone held an opinion.

What happens inside our skulls looks more like this, in two steps:

-Step A: An opinion is formed based on a mix of inference (more or less explicit) and emotions. This happens quickly and mostly subconsciously. -Step B: We find the reasons that justify this first opinion. But these reasons are just a posteriori constructions.

The person that keeps moving the goalposts does it because the first intuitions and emotions that “truly” explained their position (Step A) are still there and they have not gone away. The intuition could be something like “humans are really unique and what happens inside our skulls can’t be mechanical”. The problem in Step B: we are not that good at really introspecting inside our skulls and seeing why we believe what we do (and as Robert Trivers showed, there might be a strong evolutionary reason for this!).

I think we all can fall prey to this pattern, but some people seem to be more susceptible than others. If you notice yourself moving the goalposts, I think this is a good signal to really look into your own beliefs and try to formulate real goals/tests that would really change your mind if they were met.